Her market danger, Allegorie De Vassy, has a propensity to jump right at the fences, which is a cause for concern at this left-handed circuit. The County Hurdle is often won by a Graded performer, most notably last season’s subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner State Man. His trainer, Willie Mullins, has landed this prize twice in the previous three runnings and boasts huge claims again this year. HUNTERS YARN is the clear pick for the handler, arriving for this handicap debut after an effortless Listed Hurdle success at Navan last month. The Fame And Glory gelding has a smart turn of foot and could be leniently treated from an opening handicap mark of 147.
Michael O’Leary, the owner, speaks
Charlie Fellowes’ speedy mare won this in 2021 and grows an extra leg when the mud is flying. She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour. Again we see winners up and down the odds boards, with the sweet (but highly unpredictable and potentially coincidental) spot being north of 25/1 and south of 80/1. Those Bolts Up Daily unconsidered athletes have bagged nine of the 50 races for a profit of 23 points at SP and 331 points at BSP (thanks almost entirely to one enormous return). Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter). They won all bar two of the races (95%), and claimed 92% of the places.
Ballyadam – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 14/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in open handicap hurdles at the Fez, scoring seven times from just 60 starters in the past decade. He’s also added another ten placed horses for a brilliant 28% place strike rate. Gordon Elliott has performed even better in place terms, hitting the frame with twelve of his 34 such runners (35%). He also has a win and two places in the Fred Winter, from 11 starters.
Horse racing in the UK
Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday. Since the early days, horse racing has grown from royal entertainment into big business. For most bookies, it remains their bread and butter, alongside football and tennis as the most popularly wagered sports. So you’ve done the legwork, found the perfect horse racing bookmaker, but now what? Well, it’s time to lay down a bet, and it really couldn’t be easier.
Cheltenham Tips
A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab’s jumping holds up, I think he’ll win, and if it doesn’t I think Jonbon will win. I don’t really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven’t already played, I don’t think. Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He’s unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he’s kicked to the kerb everything he’s faced hitherto.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends
This oldest race of the Festival and monument to the Corinthian nature that characterised National Hunt racing for a million years has undergone more nips and tucks to its race conditions than . Brandy Love has been very lightly raced but is a Grade 1 winner at this range, when seeing off Love Envoi who, by contrast, was having her sixth battle of last season. I don’t expect her to confirm the form with Harry Fry’s mare.
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AL AASY is not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. Al Qareem is a gritty front runner and showed plenty of guts to win this last year. He was no match for Al Aasy last time but this track and ground brings out the best in him. As with the handicap hurdles, it’s been hard work for the girls. Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys). But it is worth further squinting at the data, because it relates that those aged five or six notched 27 of the 39 wins (69%) from just 49% of the runners.
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They both take place year-round but generally speaking the best jump racing is in winter and the best Flat action is in summer. With a longer-term record dating back to January 2021 of a similar level, he is undoubtedly a true expert to listen to when looking for value bets for each day’s racing. Northern Ticker ran a clear career best last time and is on the upgrade. Invictus Gold beat nothing at Newmarket but could not have done it any easier.
Marlborough racing tips and best bets for today’s races
We work with the belief that every race and every meeting is important, so we’ll give exactly the same coverage to a Monday night meeting at Windsor or an ITV Racing covered race at Newmarket. I still think a mark of 67 somewhat underestimates BRAZEN BOLT and back over this track and trip he looks to have plenty going for him. He travelled notably well before winning convincingly on penultimate start and I can see a similar scenario panning out here.
The starter drops the flag and they’re off
The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there’s much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark. He’d previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.
They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
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All the talk’s about Altior with less than 15 minutes left until the big race of the day. Late change of jockey in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Davy Russell has been stood down for the day after his fall from Bless The Wings in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase. 33/1 Veneer of Charm wins well to make it a treble in the afternoon for Gordon Elliot.
Constitution Hill
Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form. Deposit & play £10 on Bingo within 7 days to get £40 Bingo bonus, 50 Free Spins & Club Voucher. Selected games, wagering requirement and expiry dates apply. Up to 200 spins over 4 day period from first deposit & spend of £10. Max 50 spins each day at 10p per spin for 4 consecutive days.
Patrick Mullins
- “It is sublime and some great names from Australia who have won here have trained over 150 Group One winners and that’s only my third.
- She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four.
- VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.
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- Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground.
- But I’ve been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life.
- Fourthly, beware Paul Nicholls outside of handicap hurdles, and Charlie Longsdon and Noel Meade universally.
Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant. Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates. These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.
- And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of – these days – uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up.
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- Each row details the year of the race, the horse which won along with the age & weight of the horse.
- They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study.
- Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory.
- A relative slow starter he broke his maiden at the fourth time of asking, over nine furlongs at Punchestown.
- In other words, market wise, they’ve probably fared no worse than any other Willie cohort; which is to say losing a little bit over time and the real longshots don’t win.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips
But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it. 2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet. Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut.
The trainers’ championships
Whilst there are no genuine shortcuts outside of getting someone else’s opinion (for better or worse), there are facilitators and differentiators. Boasting the unusual accolade of being the only UK racecourse not to have a grandstand, Bangor-On-Dee stands alone amongst the wider racecourse population. North Wales’ solitary racecourse, racing has taken place on the banks of the Dee for 160 years. Nube Negra was possibly the unlucky loser story of the race, meeting traffic whilst gaining lengths over the final half a furlong.
I’m not totally sold on Stattler for all that he can obviously win. Run Wild Fred looks the one, especially with the striking booking of Jamie Codd. And last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Vanillier, must also be a contender on that evidence though not on much evidence since. Nicky Henderson saddles Marie’s Rock, who ran a nice race without troubling the judge in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Subsequently stepped up to this range, she won either side of a non-completion when badly hampered by a faller.
- The manner in which he travelled easily and then stayed on strongly at Sandown last time has the mark of a smart performer who is ahead of his mark.
- TOPOFTHEGAME fits the usual profile of winners in this trappy puzzle in that he is relatively lightly-raced and progressive.
- GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
- This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers.
- Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race.
- I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so.
- Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.
Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.
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He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.